The closely bunched implied probabilities at the top of the 2026 PGA Championship market reflect a deep, wide-open field on the PGA Tour with no dominant favorite. Alex Smalley edges the consensus at 16.4 percent, followed within two points by Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, while established names like Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka sit much lower. Recent form on similar layouts, current world rankings, and major-championship experience continue to drive these tight spreads, as several players have posted strong results in stroke-play events this season and hold proven course-history advantages that keep multiple paths to victory realistic for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 16.4%
Jon Rahm 16.2%
Ludvig Aberg 14.4%
Rory McIlroy 13.5%
$6,656,914 Vol.
$6,656,914 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
16%
Jon Rahm
16%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
13%
Xander Schauffele
8%
Aaron Rai
5%
Nick Taylor
5%
Patrick Reed
4%
Cameron Smith
4%
Matti Schmid
3%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
3%
Joaquin Niemann
3%
Justin Rose
2%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Scottie Scheffler
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
David Puig
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Justin Thomas
1%
Sam Burns
1%
Andrew Novak
1%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Brooks Koepka
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Rickie Fowler
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Cameron Young
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 16.4%
Jon Rahm 16.2%
Ludvig Aberg 14.4%
Rory McIlroy 13.5%
$6,656,914 Vol.
$6,656,914 Vol.
May 18, 2026
Alex Smalley
$275,384 Vol.
16%
Jon Rahm
$307,350 Vol.
16%
Ludvig Aberg
$181,182 Vol.
14%
Rory McIlroy
$494,823 Vol.
13%
Xander Schauffele
$372,163 Vol.
8%
Aaron Rai
$77,200 Vol.
5%
Nick Taylor
$150,731 Vol.
5%
Patrick Reed
$107,406 Vol.
4%
Cameron Smith
$63,447 Vol.
4%
Matti Schmid
$94,219 Vol.
3%
Maverick McNealy
$73,294 Vol.
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
$147,655 Vol.
3%
Joaquin Niemann
$65,693 Vol.
3%
Justin Rose
$161,427 Vol.
2%
Chris Gotterup
$117,960 Vol.
2%
Scottie Scheffler
$700,569 Vol.
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
$119,316 Vol.
1%
David Puig
$58,376 Vol.
1%
Ben Griffin
$47,113 Vol.
1%
Justin Thomas
$116,532 Vol.
1%
Sam Burns
$54,571 Vol.
1%
Andrew Novak
$935 Vol.
1%
Min Woo Lee
$164,018 Vol.
1%
Brooks Koepka
$123,527 Vol.
<1%
Harris English
$56,493 Vol.
<1%
Bud Cauley
$42,575 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Spieth
$91,722 Vol.
<1%
Brian Harman
$2,486 Vol.
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
$161,801 Vol.
<1%
Rickie Fowler
$88,033 Vol.
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
$66,525 Vol.
<1%
Si Woo Kim
$61,267 Vol.
<1%
Cameron Young
$292,146 Vol.
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
$72,794 Vol.
<1%
Collin Morikawa
$210,723 Vol.
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
$134,675 Vol.
<1%
Shane Lowry
$74,556 Vol.
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
$54,789 Vol.
<1%
Alex Noren
$4,596 Vol.
<1%
Corey Conners
$45,221 Vol.
<1%
Haotong Li
$195,000 Vol.
<1%
Sam Stevens
$39,906 Vol.
<1%
Sahith Theegala
$54,523 Vol.
<1%
Michael Brennan
$14,720 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Fox
$6,101 Vol.
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
$48,170 Vol.
<1%
John Keefer
$1,305 Vol.
<1%
Andrew Putnam
$5,544 Vol.
<1%
Sami Valimaki
$1,835 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Brown
$8,963 Vol.
<1%
Jason Day
$48,263 Vol.
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
$1,848 Vol.
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
$103,305 Vol.
<1%
Matt Wallace
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Berger
$26,588 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Gerard
$21,069 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
$86,198 Vol.
<1%
Dustin Johnson
$21,736 Vol.
<1%
Keith Mitchell
$1,956 Vol.
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
$4,146 Vol.
<1%
John Parry
$877 Vol.
<1%
Elvis Smylie
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
$3,367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely bunched implied probabilities at the top of the 2026 PGA Championship market reflect a deep, wide-open field on the PGA Tour with no dominant favorite. Alex Smalley edges the consensus at 16.4 percent, followed within two points by Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, while established names like Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka sit much lower. Recent form on similar layouts, current world rankings, and major-championship experience continue to drive these tight spreads, as several players have posted strong results in stroke-play events this season and hold proven course-history advantages that keep multiple paths to victory realistic for traders.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,656,914End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely bunched implied probabilities at the top of the 2026 PGA Championship market reflect a deep, wide-open field on the PGA Tour with no dominant favorite. Alex Smalley edges the consensus at 16.4 percent, followed within two points by Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, while established names like Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka sit much lower. Recent form on similar layouts, current world rankings, and major-championship experience continue to drive these tight spreads, as several players have posted strong results in stroke-play events this season and hold proven course-history advantages that keep multiple paths to victory realistic for traders.
This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,656,914End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely bunched implied probabilities at the top of the 2026 PGA Championship market reflect a deep, wide-open field on the PGA Tour with no dominant favorite. Alex Smalley edges the consensus at 16.4 percent, followed within two points by Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, while established names like Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka sit much lower. Recent form on similar layouts, current world rankings, and major-championship experience continue to drive these tight spreads, as several players have posted strong results in stroke-play events this season and hold proven course-history advantages that keep multiple paths to victory realistic for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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