Alex Smalley holds the solo lead heading into the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, with several players clustered within a few strokes on the leaderboard. This positioning drives the tightest implied probabilities among the top contenders, including Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, as traders weigh their recent form, course management, and closing-round execution under pressure. Scottie Scheffler sits further back after a challenging third round, tempering his market share relative to pre-tournament expectations. The bunched probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing a competitive final-day scenario where strong ball-striking, putting consistency, and avoidance of mistakes on the par-70 layout can shift outcomes rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlex Smalley 16.7%
Jon Rahm 15.4%
Ludvig Aberg 14.0%
Rory McIlroy 13.0%
$6,336,599 Vol.
$6,336,599 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
13%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
4%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Scottie Scheffler
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
2%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Andrew Novak
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Alex Smalley 16.7%
Jon Rahm 15.4%
Ludvig Aberg 14.0%
Rory McIlroy 13.0%
$6,336,599 Vol.
$6,336,599 Vol.
Alex Smalley
17%
Jon Rahm
15%
Ludvig Aberg
14%
Rory McIlroy
13%
Xander Schauffele
7%
Nick Taylor
4%
Aaron Rai
4%
Patrick Reed
4%
Maverick McNealy
3%
Matti Schmid
3%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Scottie Scheffler
2%
Justin Rose
2%
Chris Gotterup
2%
Kristoffer Reitan
2%
Min Woo Lee
1%
Joaquin Niemann
1%
Ben Griffin
1%
Cameron Smith
1%
Cameron Young
1%
Brooks Koepka
1%
Andrew Novak
1%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Sam Burns
<1%
Bud Cauley
<1%
David Puig
<1%
Harris English
<1%
Jordan Spieth
<1%
Brian Harman
<1%
Andrew Putnam
<1%
Nicolai Hojgaard
<1%
Si Woo Kim
<1%
Matt Fitzpatrick
<1%
Justin Thomas
<1%
Patrick Cantlay
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Kurt Kitayama
<1%
Shane Lowry
<1%
Alex Fitzpatrick
<1%
Alex Noren
<1%
Corey Conners
<1%
Haotong Li
<1%
Sam Stevens
<1%
Sahith Theegala
<1%
Michael Brennan
<1%
Ryan Fox
<1%
Ryo Hisatsune
<1%
John Keefer
<1%
Sami Valimaki
<1%
Daniel Brown
<1%
Jason Day
<1%
Taylor Pendrith
<1%
Aldrich Potgieter
<1%
Matt Wallace
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Rasmus Hojgaard
<1%
Dustin Johnson
<1%
Keith Mitchell
<1%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
<1%
John Parry
<1%
Elvis Smylie
<1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alex Smalley holds the solo lead heading into the final round of the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, with several players clustered within a few strokes on the leaderboard. This positioning drives the tightest implied probabilities among the top contenders, including Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy, as traders weigh their recent form, course management, and closing-round execution under pressure. Scottie Scheffler sits further back after a challenging third round, tempering his market share relative to pre-tournament expectations. The bunched probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing a competitive final-day scenario where strong ball-striking, putting consistency, and avoidance of mistakes on the par-70 layout can shift outcomes rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions