Persistent inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target, with August headline CPI at 4.0% and trimmed-mean measures steady at 3.6%, alongside the September 25-basis-point hike to a 4.60% cash rate, underpins the 74.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December meeting. Recent RBA statements emphasize that upside risks from domestic capacity pressures and Middle East energy costs are materializing, yet labor-market easing and softer growth indicators suggest the tightening cycle may peak after the November decision. Trader consensus, reflected in these odds, positions a single additional 25-basis-point move as the main alternative at 19.5%, with larger shifts remaining low-probability tail risks ahead of the December 8 meeting.