**RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary with no confirmed signals of departure by late October 2026.** As of early September, he continues directing department operations, including leadership reorganizations, staffing shifts toward political appointees, food policy reforms such as GRAS changes and ultra-processed food definitions, and adjustments to vaccine recommendation processes aligned with the administration’s Make America Healthy Again priorities. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers, former surgeons general, and public health organizations, have called for his resignation or removal over staff reductions, agency leadership vacancies, and vaccine-related decisions, but the White House has rejected related rumors (including a June denial of an imminent exit). Kennedy has publicly committed to the role, stating he will not pursue the 2028 presidency, and recent actions—such as budget testimony, RFIs on vaccine frameworks, and joint announcements with other agencies—show ongoing engagement through mid-2026. The 94% implied probability that he stays reflects the absence of any presidential directive or resignation announcement, combined with sustained alignment on core policy goals despite external pressure and internal turnover at sub-agencies like FDA and CDC. Resolution would require either a voluntary step-down or formal removal action by the president before the October 31 cutoff, neither of which has materialized in verifiable developments.