Strong corporate earnings momentum, with Wall Street projecting 23-25% S&P 500 EPS growth for full-year 2026 fueled by AI capital spending, underpins trader sentiment favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 43.5% implied probability. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% have tempered near-term rate-hike expectations, supporting the index near its record 7,799 close on August 13 amid a 3.5-3.75% Fed funds target. This environment, combined with resilient U.S. growth and broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, positions the 7,500-8,000 range at 23% as the next most likely outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could further shape monetary policy expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 44%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$7,000-$7,500 16%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
6%
$6,000-$6,500
6%
$6,500-$7,000
10%
$7,000-$7,500
17%
$7,500-$8,000
23%
>$8,000
44%
>$8,000 44%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$7,000-$7,500 16%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$20,527 Vol.
6%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,312 Vol.
6%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,408 Vol.
10%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,460 Vol.
17%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,035 Vol.
23%
>$8,000
$6,048 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, with Wall Street projecting 23-25% S&P 500 EPS growth for full-year 2026 fueled by AI capital spending, underpins trader sentiment favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 43.5% implied probability. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% have tempered near-term rate-hike expectations, supporting the index near its record 7,799 close on August 13 amid a 3.5-3.75% Fed funds target. This environment, combined with resilient U.S. growth and broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, positions the 7,500-8,000 range at 23% as the next most likely outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could further shape monetary policy expectations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$39,789End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, with Wall Street projecting 23-25% S&P 500 EPS growth for full-year 2026 fueled by AI capital spending, underpins trader sentiment favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 43.5% implied probability. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% have tempered near-term rate-hike expectations, supporting the index near its record 7,799 close on August 13 amid a 3.5-3.75% Fed funds target. This environment, combined with resilient U.S. growth and broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, positions the 7,500-8,000 range at 23% as the next most likely outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could further shape monetary policy expectations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$39,789End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong corporate earnings momentum, with Wall Street projecting 23-25% S&P 500 EPS growth for full-year 2026 fueled by AI capital spending, underpins trader sentiment favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 43.5% implied probability. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% have tempered near-term rate-hike expectations, supporting the index near its record 7,799 close on August 13 amid a 3.5-3.75% Fed funds target. This environment, combined with resilient U.S. growth and broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, positions the 7,500-8,000 range at 23% as the next most likely outcome. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases that could further shape monetary policy expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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