No announced retirements or confirmed health developments among the nine sitting U.S. Supreme Court justices support the 79.5% trader consensus against a 2026 vacancy. The oldest members, Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76), remain active without signaling departure despite approaching the historical average retirement age near 80, while younger justices including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71) show no comparable pressure. A retracted June 2026 report claiming Alito’s exit briefly elevated speculation before correction, reinforcing the absence of concrete catalysts. Senate Republican leaders have stated readiness to confirm any nominee quickly, yet lifetime tenure, lack of mandatory retirement rules, and no recent official statements or institutional actions keep implied probabilities tilted against an opening before year-end.