Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,522End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,522End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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