No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026 at a 74% trader-implied probability, driven by the absence of retirement announcements or confirmed health developments among the nine sitting justices. Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the oldest at 78 and 76, have shown no intent to step down despite nearing historical retirement averages, while younger members including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor face no comparable pressure. Recent speculation around Alito's March health episode and book plans has not produced action, and Senate Republicans have signaled readiness for any confirmation process without triggering events. Lifetime tenure norms and lack of official signals continue to anchor consensus on stability through year-end.