Recent ONS data showing 0.4% QoQ GDP growth in Q2 2026, with services output rising 0.5% while production stagnated, combined with a 0.4% monthly gain in July, underpin trader positioning around the 0.4–0.5% bin. Independent forecasts compiled in September 2026 cluster near 0.2–0.4% for Q3, reflecting persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments that are eroding real incomes and capping consumption. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projects subdued quarterly expansion amid a negative output gap and 5.0% unemployment rate, while the services-led momentum and limited downside risks from recent PMI readings support the market-implied odds favoring modest positive growth over contraction or acceleration.