Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-September 2026. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced signals that trilateral talks could resume in October, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk remain unresolved, with Russia insisting on additional Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting unilateral concessions absent durable security guarantees. These factors sustain trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement within the narrow window to October 31. A signed deal could still emerge from accelerated leader-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments that alter leverage, though historical patterns of stalled diplomacy suggest such outcomes face steep procedural and substantive barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$12,448 Vol.
$12,448 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
2% chance
$12,448 Vol.
$12,448 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-September 2026. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced signals that trilateral talks could resume in October, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk remain unresolved, with Russia insisting on additional Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting unilateral concessions absent durable security guarantees. These factors sustain trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement within the narrow window to October 31. A signed deal could still emerge from accelerated leader-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments that alter leverage, though historical patterns of stalled diplomacy suggest such outcomes face steep procedural and substantive barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$12,448End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-September 2026. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced signals that trilateral talks could resume in October, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk remain unresolved, with Russia insisting on additional Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting unilateral concessions absent durable security guarantees. These factors sustain trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement within the narrow window to October 31. A signed deal could still emerge from accelerated leader-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments that alter leverage, though historical patterns of stalled diplomacy suggest such outcomes face steep procedural and substantive barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,448End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks, continue without a ceasefire as of mid-September 2026. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced signals that trilateral talks could resume in October, yet core disputes over territorial control in Donetsk remain unresolved, with Russia insisting on additional Ukrainian withdrawals and Ukraine rejecting unilateral concessions absent durable security guarantees. These factors sustain trader consensus against a comprehensive peace agreement within the narrow window to October 31. A signed deal could still emerge from accelerated leader-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments that alter leverage, though historical patterns of stalled diplomacy suggest such outcomes face steep procedural and substantive barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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