Ongoing US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, combined with a naval blockade and the Middle East conflict that began in February, have driven the Iranian rial to repeated record lows near or above 2.5 million per USD on free markets in recent weeks. Indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and potential sanctions adjustments introduce uncertainty, as do statements from US officials signaling continued pressure alongside diplomatic engagement. With inflation exceeding 60% and limited foreign currency access, traders see these factors balancing risks of further depreciation against any near-term de-escalation by year-end, producing closely matched probabilities around the 2.5–3.5 million range.