**Trader consensus heavily favors the 2.5–2.8 million rials per USD band at end-September, reflecting the rial’s sharp depreciation amid sustained U.S. sanctions pressure and regional conflict.** Free-market rates reached fresh record lows above 2.5 million rials per dollar in late September, following the prior low near 2.2 million in early September. Intensified measures under Operation Economic Outcast, including banking, shipping, and aviation restrictions, combined with a naval blockade that has sharply curtailed Iranian oil exports, have reduced foreign-exchange inflows and fueled domestic demand for dollars. High inflation and GDP contraction have compounded the pressure, keeping the parallel-market rate elevated as the month closes. Limited diplomatic signals on Strait of Hormuz access have not yet altered the near-term trajectory.