Incumbent Republican Phil Scott’s strong historical performance and moderate profile in Vermont continue to anchor trader expectations for his reelection bid against Democrat Amanda Janoo. Scott has secured five prior terms with widening margins, including a 52-point victory in 2024, and retains notable crossover support despite a dip in approval ratings. Recent polling has fluctuated sharply, with a late-September University of New Hampshire survey showing a statistical tie or narrow Janoo lead, while October surveys from Vermont Public and State Navigate indicate Scott ahead by 3 to 10 points among likely voters. Janoo’s August primary win and Bernie Sanders’ October 7 endorsement have boosted her visibility, yet the race remains one of the closest in a decade with roughly four weeks until the November 3 general election.