Walmart’s consistent omnichannel momentum, including seventh straight quarter of U.S. e-commerce growth above 20%, positions the 21-25% band as the market’s clear consensus with 76.5% implied probability. Store-fulfilled delivery and pickup channels have accelerated sharply, contributing hundreds of basis points to comparable sales while marketplace and Walmart Connect advertising sustain double-digit gains. Traders appear to weigh these structural tailwinds against moderating macro retail trends and the company’s prior 24% U.S. print, keeping higher ranges like 25-29% at just 15%. The upcoming Q3 earnings release remains the key catalyst that will resolve the contract, with any deviation in fulfillment mix or advertising revenue likely to shift pricing.