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AS predictions & odds

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Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

100%

Kevin Warsh

$64M Vol.

$5M today

$11M Liq.

112

Ends in 6 months

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

2%

$636K Vol.

$576K today

$22.8K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

100%

June 30

$5M Vol.

$158K today

$297K Liq.

101

Ends in about 4 hours

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

2%

$2M Vol.

$125K today

$208K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Trump out as President by May 31?

Trump out as President by May 31?

1%

$1M Vol.

$79.7K today

$573K Liq.

1

Ends in 17 days

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

100%

May 15

$1M Vol.

$53.7K today

$222K Liq.

14

Ends in 1 day

Trump out as President by June 30?

Trump out as President by June 30?

2%

$5M Vol.

$389K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

100%

Kevin Cramer

$135K Vol.

$92.9K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

18%

December 31, 2026

$159K Vol.

$31.1K Liq.

38

Ends in 8 months

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

12%

$4M Vol.

$208K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

12%

$8M Vol.

$743K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

97%

May 15–22

$94.4K Vol.

$47.1K Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30?

50%

No Announcement by June 30

$707K Vol.

$175K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

100%

June 30

$79.2K Vol.

$34.1K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

66%

$104K Vol.

$9.6K Liq.

30

Ends in about 2 months

Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?

Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?

23%

$20.1K Vol.

$6.4K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

5%

$215K Vol.

$28.7K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

16%

$164K Vol.

$28.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

60%

December 31

$1M Vol.

$81.7K Liq.

66

Ends in about 2 months

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

18%

$407K Vol.

$22.9K Liq.

157

Ends in 17 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like AS.

Polymarket currently hosts 3147 active markets for AS that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $95.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Trump out as President by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Kevin Warsh. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on AS predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.