OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and subsequent September confirmation of a 2027 IPO timeline—driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety and alignment priorities—anchor trader sentiment around a post-2026 valuation well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark. Run-rate revenue exceeding $40 billion annualized, ambitious targets near $100 billion by 2027, and heavy data-center spending that sustains operating losses create a wide range of outcomes. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities, led by the $1.75T–$2.0T bin at 22.5 percent, reflect expectations of continued revenue inflection and AI market multiples offset by governance complexities in the Public Benefit Corporation structure, competition from Anthropic, and potential dilution or macro shifts in tech IPO conditions. Key swing factors include 2026–2027 earnings trajectory and any regulatory milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75T–$2.0T 23%
$1.5T–$1.75T 16.0%
$2.5T+ 15.7%
<$1T 13.7%
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
<$1T
14%
$1.0T–$1.25T
6%
$1.25T–$1.5T
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T
23%
$2.0T–$2.25T
6%
$2.25T–$2.5T
6%
$2.5T+
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T 23%
$1.5T–$1.75T 16.0%
$2.5T+ 15.7%
<$1T 13.7%
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
<$1T
$46,276 Vol.
14%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$22,229 Vol.
6%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$8,667 Vol.
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$13,178 Vol.
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$28,702 Vol.
23%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$2,950 Vol.
6%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$8,687 Vol.
6%
$2.5T+
$59,248 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and subsequent September confirmation of a 2027 IPO timeline—driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety and alignment priorities—anchor trader sentiment around a post-2026 valuation well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark. Run-rate revenue exceeding $40 billion annualized, ambitious targets near $100 billion by 2027, and heavy data-center spending that sustains operating losses create a wide range of outcomes. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities, led by the $1.75T–$2.0T bin at 22.5 percent, reflect expectations of continued revenue inflection and AI market multiples offset by governance complexities in the Public Benefit Corporation structure, competition from Anthropic, and potential dilution or macro shifts in tech IPO conditions. Key swing factors include 2026–2027 earnings trajectory and any regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$189,938End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and subsequent September confirmation of a 2027 IPO timeline—driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety and alignment priorities—anchor trader sentiment around a post-2026 valuation well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark. Run-rate revenue exceeding $40 billion annualized, ambitious targets near $100 billion by 2027, and heavy data-center spending that sustains operating losses create a wide range of outcomes. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities, led by the $1.75T–$2.0T bin at 22.5 percent, reflect expectations of continued revenue inflection and AI market multiples offset by governance complexities in the Public Benefit Corporation structure, competition from Anthropic, and potential dilution or macro shifts in tech IPO conditions. Key swing factors include 2026–2027 earnings trajectory and any regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$189,938End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 S-1 filing and subsequent September confirmation of a 2027 IPO timeline—driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety and alignment priorities—anchor trader sentiment around a post-2026 valuation well above the $852 billion March 2026 private mark. Run-rate revenue exceeding $40 billion annualized, ambitious targets near $100 billion by 2027, and heavy data-center spending that sustains operating losses create a wide range of outcomes. The closely matched Polymarket probabilities, led by the $1.75T–$2.0T bin at 22.5 percent, reflect expectations of continued revenue inflection and AI market multiples offset by governance complexities in the Public Benefit Corporation structure, competition from Anthropic, and potential dilution or macro shifts in tech IPO conditions. Key swing factors include 2026–2027 earnings trajectory and any regulatory milestones.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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