OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and confirmed 2027 timeline, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety priorities, form the core driver behind the spread in trader-implied probabilities, with the $1.75T–$2.0T bucket holding the narrow lead at 22.5%. Revenue run rate has roughly doubled to over $40 billion annualized since late 2025, supported by Codex traction and new model releases, yet the company continues posting substantial operating losses amid heavy compute and R&D spend. Recent discussions around a potential $1.5 trillion private round signal strong institutional appetite that could anchor a higher public debut, while the $852 billion March 2026 mark and Anthropic’s faster revenue pace introduce competitive benchmarks. The dispersed odds reflect uncertainty over 2027 execution risks, governance complexities in the nonprofit-controlled structure, and public-market multiples for still-unprofitable AI leaders relative to historical precedents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75T–$2.0T 23%
$1.5T–$1.75T 15.7%
$2.5T+ 15.6%
<$1T 13.7%
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<$1T
14%
$1.0T–$1.25T
6%
$1.25T–$1.5T
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T
23%
$2.0T–$2.25T
7%
$2.25T–$2.5T
6%
$2.5T+
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T 23%
$1.5T–$1.75T 15.7%
$2.5T+ 15.6%
<$1T 13.7%
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<$1T
$46,276 Vol.
14%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$22,229 Vol.
6%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$8,667 Vol.
10%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$13,178 Vol.
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$28,702 Vol.
23%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$2,950 Vol.
7%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$8,687 Vol.
6%
$2.5T+
$59,248 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and confirmed 2027 timeline, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety priorities, form the core driver behind the spread in trader-implied probabilities, with the $1.75T–$2.0T bucket holding the narrow lead at 22.5%. Revenue run rate has roughly doubled to over $40 billion annualized since late 2025, supported by Codex traction and new model releases, yet the company continues posting substantial operating losses amid heavy compute and R&D spend. Recent discussions around a potential $1.5 trillion private round signal strong institutional appetite that could anchor a higher public debut, while the $852 billion March 2026 mark and Anthropic’s faster revenue pace introduce competitive benchmarks. The dispersed odds reflect uncertainty over 2027 execution risks, governance complexities in the nonprofit-controlled structure, and public-market multiples for still-unprofitable AI leaders relative to historical precedents.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$189,938End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and confirmed 2027 timeline, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety priorities, form the core driver behind the spread in trader-implied probabilities, with the $1.75T–$2.0T bucket holding the narrow lead at 22.5%. Revenue run rate has roughly doubled to over $40 billion annualized since late 2025, supported by Codex traction and new model releases, yet the company continues posting substantial operating losses amid heavy compute and R&D spend. Recent discussions around a potential $1.5 trillion private round signal strong institutional appetite that could anchor a higher public debut, while the $852 billion March 2026 mark and Anthropic’s faster revenue pace introduce competitive benchmarks. The dispersed odds reflect uncertainty over 2027 execution risks, governance complexities in the nonprofit-controlled structure, and public-market multiples for still-unprofitable AI leaders relative to historical precedents.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$189,938End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and confirmed 2027 timeline, driven by CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on AI safety priorities, form the core driver behind the spread in trader-implied probabilities, with the $1.75T–$2.0T bucket holding the narrow lead at 22.5%. Revenue run rate has roughly doubled to over $40 billion annualized since late 2025, supported by Codex traction and new model releases, yet the company continues posting substantial operating losses amid heavy compute and R&D spend. Recent discussions around a potential $1.5 trillion private round signal strong institutional appetite that could anchor a higher public debut, while the $852 billion March 2026 mark and Anthropic’s faster revenue pace introduce competitive benchmarks. The dispersed odds reflect uncertainty over 2027 execution risks, governance complexities in the nonprofit-controlled structure, and public-market multiples for still-unprofitable AI leaders relative to historical precedents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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