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icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

$10,773 Vol.

May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$10,773 Vol.

Polymarket

Noah Kahan

$5 Vol.

44%

Gracie Abrams

$28 Vol.

43%

The Weeknd

$0 Vol.

42%

Olivia Dean

$4,545 Vol.

8%

Bad Bunny

$0 Vol.

7%

Don Toliver

$458 Vol.

6%

Alex Warren

$2,031 Vol.

5%

Kanye West

$0 Vol.

4%

Ariana Grande

$1,005 Vol.

61%

Beyonce

$2 Vol.

45%

Taylor Swift

$88 Vol.

50%

Bruno Mars

$50 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drop Dead” secured the Billboard Hot 100 summit on the May 2 chart through dominant streaming and sales, establishing her as the clear early-May frontrunner and pushing market-implied odds near certainty. Drake’s “Iceman” album, released May 15, is now the primary catalyst traders are watching, with his catalog resurgence and aggressive promotional rollout expected to deliver multiple weeks at No. 1 via blockbuster Spotify and Apple Music numbers. Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift remain secondary contenders whose new material or catalog surges could still break through if Drake’s momentum stalls. Upcoming weekly chart updates through Memorial Day will serve as the decisive resolution points, while historical patterns show May releases often face stiff competition from lingering holdovers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Volume
$10,773
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drop Dead” secured the Billboard Hot 100 summit on the May 2 chart through dominant streaming and sales, establishing her as the clear early-May frontrunner and pushing market-implied odds near certainty. Drake’s “Iceman” album, released May 15, is now the primary catalyst traders are watching, with his catalog resurgence and aggressive promotional rollout expected to deliver multiple weeks at No. 1 via blockbuster Spotify and Apple Music numbers. Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift remain secondary contenders whose new material or catalog surges could still break through if Drake’s momentum stalls. Upcoming weekly chart updates through Memorial Day will serve as the decisive resolution points, while historical patterns show May releases often face stiff competition from lingering holdovers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Volume
$10,773
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Olivia Rodrigo" at 100%, followed by "Drake" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" has generated $10.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" is "Olivia Rodrigo" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Drake" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.