Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 release on July 24 drives its 69% implied probability, as the large language model tops Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance while dominating developer-voted coding arenas. Strong results in reasoning, coding, and real-world agent tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities through mid-2026. xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12 with notable post-training gains, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family keep those options at roughly 11% each by offering competitive pricing and specialized strengths in math or general use. Google’s Gemini updates add further pressure but trail in current leaderboards. With four months left, additional model refreshes or benchmark shifts remain key swing factors for end-of-year resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
xAI 10.8%
OpenAI 11%
Google 7%
$680,810 Vol.
$680,810 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
xAI
11%
OpenAI
11%
7%
Meta
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
xAI 10.8%
OpenAI 11%
Google 7%
$680,810 Vol.
$680,810 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$76,898 Vol.
69%
xAI
$51,692 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$57,083 Vol.
11%
$36,468 Vol.
7%
Meta
$43,111 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$51,122 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$43,388 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$49,186 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$44,301 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$53,975 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$34,674 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$34,764 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$30,448 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$37,556 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$36,145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 release on July 24 drives its 69% implied probability, as the large language model tops Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance while dominating developer-voted coding arenas. Strong results in reasoning, coding, and real-world agent tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities through mid-2026. xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12 with notable post-training gains, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family keep those options at roughly 11% each by offering competitive pricing and specialized strengths in math or general use. Google’s Gemini updates add further pressure but trail in current leaderboards. With four months left, additional model refreshes or benchmark shifts remain key swing factors for end-of-year resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$680,810End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 release on July 24 drives its 69% implied probability, as the large language model tops Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance while dominating developer-voted coding arenas. Strong results in reasoning, coding, and real-world agent tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities through mid-2026. xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12 with notable post-training gains, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family keep those options at roughly 11% each by offering competitive pricing and specialized strengths in math or general use. Google’s Gemini updates add further pressure but trail in current leaderboards. With four months left, additional model refreshes or benchmark shifts remain key swing factors for end-of-year resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$680,810End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 release on July 24 drives its 69% implied probability, as the large language model tops Artificial Analysis benchmarks for intelligence and agentic performance while dominating developer-voted coding arenas. Strong results in reasoning, coding, and real-world agent tasks have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in frontier capabilities through mid-2026. xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12 with notable post-training gains, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family keep those options at roughly 11% each by offering competitive pricing and specialized strengths in math or general use. Google’s Gemini updates add further pressure but trail in current leaderboards. With four months left, additional model refreshes or benchmark shifts remain key swing factors for end-of-year resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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