Anthropic's Claude family, including recent Mythos 5 and Opus 5 variants, drives the 69% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on 2026 benchmarks such as BenchAlign and SWE-bench for reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in long-context handling and production reliability over competitors, with xAI at 11.1% and OpenAI at 10% trailing on composite scores despite GPT-5.6 strengths in multimodal tasks. Google trails at 6.5% amid ecosystem integration advantages but lower frontier benchmark leadership. Ongoing model iterations and capability demonstrations through mid-2026 have reinforced this positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
xAI 10.9%
OpenAI 10%
Google 7%
$680,142 Vol.
$680,142 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
xAI
11%
OpenAI
10%
7%
Meta
2%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 69%
xAI 10.9%
OpenAI 10%
Google 7%
$680,142 Vol.
$680,142 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$76,898 Vol.
69%
xAI
$51,025 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$57,083 Vol.
10%
$36,468 Vol.
7%
Meta
$43,111 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$51,122 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$43,388 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$49,186 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$44,301 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$53,975 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$34,674 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$34,764 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$30,448 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$37,556 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$36,145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family, including recent Mythos 5 and Opus 5 variants, drives the 69% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on 2026 benchmarks such as BenchAlign and SWE-bench for reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in long-context handling and production reliability over competitors, with xAI at 11.1% and OpenAI at 10% trailing on composite scores despite GPT-5.6 strengths in multimodal tasks. Google trails at 6.5% amid ecosystem integration advantages but lower frontier benchmark leadership. Ongoing model iterations and capability demonstrations through mid-2026 have reinforced this positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$680,142End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family, including recent Mythos 5 and Opus 5 variants, drives the 69% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on 2026 benchmarks such as BenchAlign and SWE-bench for reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in long-context handling and production reliability over competitors, with xAI at 11.1% and OpenAI at 10% trailing on composite scores despite GPT-5.6 strengths in multimodal tasks. Google trails at 6.5% amid ecosystem integration advantages but lower frontier benchmark leadership. Ongoing model iterations and capability demonstrations through mid-2026 have reinforced this positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$680,142End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude family, including recent Mythos 5 and Opus 5 variants, drives the 69% market-implied odds through consistent top rankings on 2026 benchmarks such as BenchAlign and SWE-bench for reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's edge in long-context handling and production reliability over competitors, with xAI at 11.1% and OpenAI at 10% trailing on composite scores despite GPT-5.6 strengths in multimodal tasks. Google trails at 6.5% amid ecosystem integration advantages but lower frontier benchmark leadership. Ongoing model iterations and capability demonstrations through mid-2026 have reinforced this positioning ahead of year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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