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icon for Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

icon for Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 50%

Google 23%

Meta 13%

Alibaba 11%

Polymarket
NEW

Anthropic 50%

Google 23%

Meta 13%

Alibaba 11%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$276 Vol.

55%

icon for Google

Google

$382 Vol.

26%

icon for Meta

Meta

$94 Vol.

13%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$154 Vol.

11%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$94 Vol.

10%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$154 Vol.

10%

icon for xAI

xAI

$168 Vol.

10%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$94 Vol.

10%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$154 Vol.

9%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$218 Vol.

6%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$94 Vol.

10%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$155 Vol.

10%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$154 Vol.

10%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$154 Vol.

9%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$154 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,494
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,494
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 56%, followed by "Google" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.