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Tech·TikTok

Who will acquire TikTok?

icon for Who will acquire TikTok?
Tech·TikTok

Who will acquire TikTok?

$1,047,460 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,047,460 Vol.

Polymarket

AppLovin

$35,120 Vol.

3%

Microsoft

$105,354 Vol.

3%

Amazon

$66,759 Vol.

2%

Walmart

$72,213 Vol.

2%

Meta

$122,263 Vol.

1%

Elon Musk / X (Twitter)

$80,642 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, byJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The January 2026 closure of TikTok’s U.S. joint-venture structure, giving Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each a 15 percent stake while ByteDance retains 19.9 percent, has become the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Polymarket’s acquisition market. This majority-American-owned entity, governed by a seven-member board and secured through Oracle’s cloud infrastructure, effectively resolved the long-running national-security standoff without a full divestiture, elevating Oracle’s implied probability as the most credible near-term acquirer. Competitive dynamics now center on whether additional U.S. investors or tech platforms could still consolidate control ahead of any regulatory review, while historical precedent for ByteDance retaining minority stakes in overseas operations supports the current consensus. Traders are watching for updates on board composition, algorithm governance changes, or new filings that could alter ownership thresholds before the market resolves.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Volume
$1,047,460
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 11:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, byJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The January 2026 closure of TikTok’s U.S. joint-venture structure, giving Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each a 15 percent stake while ByteDance retains 19.9 percent, has become the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on Polymarket’s acquisition market. This majority-American-owned entity, governed by a seven-member board and secured through Oracle’s cloud infrastructure, effectively resolved the long-running national-security standoff without a full divestiture, elevating Oracle’s implied probability as the most credible near-term acquirer. Competitive dynamics now center on whether additional U.S. investors or tech platforms could still consolidate control ahead of any regulatory review, while historical precedent for ByteDance retaining minority stakes in overseas operations supports the current consensus. Traders are watching for updates on board composition, algorithm governance changes, or new filings that could alter ownership thresholds before the market resolves.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Volume
$1,047,460
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 11:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will acquire TikTok?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Larry Ellison/Oracle" at 100%, followed by "AppLovin" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will acquire TikTok?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will acquire TikTok?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will acquire TikTok?" is "Larry Ellison/Oracle" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "AppLovin" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will acquire TikTok?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.