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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 81%

Carlos Prates 19.9%

Ian Machado Garry 6.6%

Michael Morales 4.0%

Polymarket

$40,316 Vol.

Islam Makhachev 81%

Carlos Prates 19.9%

Ian Machado Garry 6.6%

Michael Morales 4.0%

Polymarket

$40,316 Vol.

Islam Makhachev

$5,704 Vol.

81%

Carlos Prates

$1,117 Vol.

19%

Ian Machado Garry

$2,086 Vol.

7%

Michael Morales

$1,379 Vol.

4%

Kamaru Usman

$1,217 Vol.

<1%

Sean Brady

$1,238 Vol.

<1%

Leon Edwards

$962 Vol.

<1%

Joaquin Buckley

$21,125 Vol.

<1%

Belal Muhammad

$870 Vol.

<1%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,672 Vol.

<1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$2,947 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds a commanding edge in the UFC welterweight title picture as the current champion following his dominant 2025 victory over Jack Della Maddalena, and traders assign him an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the belt through the end of 2026. His established dominance at lightweight, combined with a strong start at 170 pounds and a confirmed first title defense scheduled for July, positions him favorably against a deep division. Rising contenders such as Carlos Prates, fresh off back-to-back knockout wins including one over Della Maddalena, and Ian Machado Garry sit at 18.9% and 6.6% respectively, reflecting their momentum and stylistic threats but also the significant barriers posed by Makhachev’s grappling and fight IQ. Other names like Michael Morales and veterans such as Kamaru Usman trail further behind amid ongoing roster shifts and recent form trends.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$40,316
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Islam Makhachev holds a commanding edge in the UFC welterweight title picture as the current champion following his dominant 2025 victory over Jack Della Maddalena, and traders assign him an 80.5% implied probability of retaining the belt through the end of 2026. His established dominance at lightweight, combined with a strong start at 170 pounds and a confirmed first title defense scheduled for July, positions him favorably against a deep division. Rising contenders such as Carlos Prates, fresh off back-to-back knockout wins including one over Della Maddalena, and Ian Machado Garry sit at 18.9% and 6.6% respectively, reflecting their momentum and stylistic threats but also the significant barriers posed by Makhachev’s grappling and fight IQ. Other names like Michael Morales and veterans such as Kamaru Usman trail further behind amid ongoing roster shifts and recent form trends.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$40,316
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 81%, followed by "Carlos Prates" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $40.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Prates" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.