**US regular gasoline prices averaged $4.41 per gallon on October 1, 2026, after dipping nearly 7 cents the prior week following a record September monthly average of $4.33.** Elevated crude oil near $90 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery strikes in Russia and Ukraine, has kept pump prices at multi-year highs for the season despite softer recent demand and a modest inventory draw. Strong global supply constraints and seasonal transitions to winter blends could influence near-term moves, while upcoming EIA storage and production data plus any de-escalation in energy-related conflicts represent key catalysts through month-end. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on these supply and macro factors amid elevated but volatile pricing.