Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 4-5 ships daily in late September—roughly 5% of the pre-crisis norm of 80-plus vessels. Recent US-Iran interim agreements and naval coordination have enabled modest increases in oil and LNG shipments, pushing Brent crude toward $97-108 per barrel amid supply concerns, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at 15-40 times normal levels. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing ceasefire negotiations, mine-clearing efforts, and enforcement of dual transit corridors, which could determine whether visible commercial activity rebounds meaningfully before the October 31 resolution date. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around sustained access versus renewed disruptions.