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Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

icon for Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

80% chance
Polymarket

$159,948 Vol.

80% chance
Polymarket

$159,948 Vol.

Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify. If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising component costs for memory and storage have driven Polymarket traders to price a "Yes" outcome at 72% implied probability for the Steam Machine launching at $700 or more, reflecting consensus from credible leaks like Moore's Law Is Dead estimating $600–$650 base for the 512GB model amid shortages, while Czech retailer listings suggest $950+ for similar configs. Valve's confirmation of a first-half 2026 release window, coupled with potential U.S. tariffs adding $200+, has shifted sentiment upward from earlier sub-$600 hopes, positioning it competitively against PS5 Pro equivalents but risking value perceptions if exceeding $750. Traders eye an imminent pricing announcement as the key catalyst, with falling RAM prices offering a slim path to undercutting the threshold.

Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify.

If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$159,948
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 14, 2025, 7:16 PM ET
Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify. If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify. If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising component costs for memory and storage have driven Polymarket traders to price a "Yes" outcome at 72% implied probability for the Steam Machine launching at $700 or more, reflecting consensus from credible leaks like Moore's Law Is Dead estimating $600–$650 base for the 512GB model amid shortages, while Czech retailer listings suggest $950+ for similar configs. Valve's confirmation of a first-half 2026 release window, coupled with potential U.S. tariffs adding $200+, has shifted sentiment upward from earlier sub-$600 hopes, positioning it competitively against PS5 Pro equivalents but risking value perceptions if exceeding $750. Traders eye an imminent pricing announcement as the key catalyst, with falling RAM prices offering a slim path to undercutting the threshold.

Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify.

If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$159,948
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 14, 2025, 7:16 PM ET
Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify. If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 72% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 72¢, the market collectively assigns a 72% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?" has generated $159.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?" is 72% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 72% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.