Recent large-parameter releases from Chinese labs, including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 in July and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Qwen3.8-27B in early-to-mid August, have driven trader attention toward those firms for the #3 slot on style-controlled leaderboards like LMSYS Arena. These models post competitive scores on agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks while benefiting from open-weight accessibility, narrowing the gap with proprietary leaders from Anthropic. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash update and Meta’s Muse releases add further volatility near the August 31 resolution. With probabilities clustered tightly around 40-50% for the top contenders, small benchmark shifts or new model drops in the final two weeks could reorder the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAlibaba 42%
Google 39%
Moonshot 11.3%
Meta 9%
$43,399 Vol.
$43,399 Vol.
31 août 2026
Alibaba
42%
39%
Moonshot
11%
Meta
9%
OpenAI
4%
Microsoft
2%
Z.ai
2%
Anthropic
1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 42%
Google 39%
Moonshot 11.3%
Meta 9%
$43,399 Vol.
$43,399 Vol.
31 août 2026
Alibaba
$9,594 Vol.
42%
$6,526 Vol.
39%
Moonshot
$1,654 Vol.
11%
Meta
$11,555 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$1,263 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$1,035 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$958 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$1,246 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$901 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$920 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$851 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$856 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$539 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$541 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$774 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$474 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$830 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$557 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$565 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$527 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent large-parameter releases from Chinese labs, including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 in July and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Qwen3.8-27B in early-to-mid August, have driven trader attention toward those firms for the #3 slot on style-controlled leaderboards like LMSYS Arena. These models post competitive scores on agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks while benefiting from open-weight accessibility, narrowing the gap with proprietary leaders from Anthropic. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash update and Meta’s Muse releases add further volatility near the August 31 resolution. With probabilities clustered tightly around 40-50% for the top contenders, small benchmark shifts or new model drops in the final two weeks could reorder the field.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Volume
$43,399Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent large-parameter releases from Chinese labs, including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 in July and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Qwen3.8-27B in early-to-mid August, have driven trader attention toward those firms for the #3 slot on style-controlled leaderboards like LMSYS Arena. These models post competitive scores on agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks while benefiting from open-weight accessibility, narrowing the gap with proprietary leaders from Anthropic. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash update and Meta’s Muse releases add further volatility near the August 31 resolution. With probabilities clustered tightly around 40-50% for the top contenders, small benchmark shifts or new model drops in the final two weeks could reorder the field.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$43,399Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent large-parameter releases from Chinese labs, including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 in July and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max and Qwen3.8-27B in early-to-mid August, have driven trader attention toward those firms for the #3 slot on style-controlled leaderboards like LMSYS Arena. These models post competitive scores on agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks while benefiting from open-weight accessibility, narrowing the gap with proprietary leaders from Anthropic. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash update and Meta’s Muse releases add further volatility near the August 31 resolution. With probabilities clustered tightly around 40-50% for the top contenders, small benchmark shifts or new model drops in the final two weeks could reorder the field.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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