Trader sentiment reflects a tight, multi-way contest for third place among frontier AI labs by end of September, driven by rapid model releases and shifting benchmarks. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top many leaderboards, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini series, and xAI’s Grok models clustered closely behind on metrics like reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba’s Qwen remain competitive as the U.S.-China performance gap narrows. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, benchmark updates under style-control evaluation, and infrastructure scaling, with traders viewing the outcome as highly sensitive to the next one or two model drops before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSpaceXAI 51%
Meta 50%
OpenAI 50%
Xiaomi 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
SpaceXAI
51%
Meta
50%
OpenAI
50%
Xiaomi
50%
42%
Moonshot
41%
Baidu
41%
Anthropic
40%
Alibaba
40%
Z.ai
40%
DeepSeek
24%
ByteDance
24%
MiniMax
24%
Thinky
24%
Meituan
24%
Mistral
24%
Amazon
24%
Nvidia
24%
Tencent
24%
StepFun
24%
Microsoft
24%
SpaceXAI 51%
Meta 50%
OpenAI 50%
Xiaomi 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
51%
Meta
$0 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
50%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
50%
$0 Vol.
42%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
41%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
41%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
40%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
40%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
40%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
24%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
24%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
24%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
24%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
24%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
24%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
24%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
24%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
24%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment reflects a tight, multi-way contest for third place among frontier AI labs by end of September, driven by rapid model releases and shifting benchmarks. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top many leaderboards, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini series, and xAI’s Grok models clustered closely behind on metrics like reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba’s Qwen remain competitive as the U.S.-China performance gap narrows. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, benchmark updates under style-control evaluation, and infrastructure scaling, with traders viewing the outcome as highly sensitive to the next one or two model drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment reflects a tight, multi-way contest for third place among frontier AI labs by end of September, driven by rapid model releases and shifting benchmarks. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top many leaderboards, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini series, and xAI’s Grok models clustered closely behind on metrics like reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba’s Qwen remain competitive as the U.S.-China performance gap narrows. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, benchmark updates under style-control evaluation, and infrastructure scaling, with traders viewing the outcome as highly sensitive to the next one or two model drops before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects a tight, multi-way contest for third place among frontier AI labs by end of September, driven by rapid model releases and shifting benchmarks. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top many leaderboards, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 family, Google’s Gemini series, and xAI’s Grok models clustered closely behind on metrics like reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. Chinese labs including DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Alibaba’s Qwen remain competitive as the U.S.-China performance gap narrows. Key swing factors include upcoming releases, benchmark updates under style-control evaluation, and infrastructure scaling, with traders viewing the outcome as highly sensitive to the next one or two model drops before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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