Google's recent rollout of Google Pics, an AI image generator with admin-level style references, brand consistency controls, and prompt-based stylistic preferences integrated across Workspace apps, has driven strong trader consensus around its 78.5% implied probability. This September 1 launch builds on Gemini 3.5 image capabilities for precise visual direction retention, giving the lab a clear edge in demonstrated style adherence features ahead of month-end. OpenAI's September 8 ChatGPT Images 2.5 update improved style reflection and editing via Sketch, yet its low 1.8% odds reflect market views that it falls short of the specific "Style Control On" threshold. Meta's earlier Muse Image refinements and scattered reports from other labs create uncertainty for the 50% cohort, while lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others underscore the absence of comparable verified releases or timelines in the final days of September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 79%
Meta 9%
OpenAI 1.8%
Alibaba 1.6%
$112,631 Vol.
$112,631 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
79%
Meta
9%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 79%
Meta 9%
OpenAI 1.8%
Alibaba 1.6%
$112,631 Vol.
$112,631 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
$20,948 Vol.
79%
Meta
$28,765 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$4,822 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$9,933 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,645 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$2,459 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,935 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,029 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$2,692 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,337 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$21,169 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,902 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent rollout of Google Pics, an AI image generator with admin-level style references, brand consistency controls, and prompt-based stylistic preferences integrated across Workspace apps, has driven strong trader consensus around its 78.5% implied probability. This September 1 launch builds on Gemini 3.5 image capabilities for precise visual direction retention, giving the lab a clear edge in demonstrated style adherence features ahead of month-end. OpenAI's September 8 ChatGPT Images 2.5 update improved style reflection and editing via Sketch, yet its low 1.8% odds reflect market views that it falls short of the specific "Style Control On" threshold. Meta's earlier Muse Image refinements and scattered reports from other labs create uncertainty for the 50% cohort, while lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others underscore the absence of comparable verified releases or timelines in the final days of September.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$112,631Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent rollout of Google Pics, an AI image generator with admin-level style references, brand consistency controls, and prompt-based stylistic preferences integrated across Workspace apps, has driven strong trader consensus around its 78.5% implied probability. This September 1 launch builds on Gemini 3.5 image capabilities for precise visual direction retention, giving the lab a clear edge in demonstrated style adherence features ahead of month-end. OpenAI's September 8 ChatGPT Images 2.5 update improved style reflection and editing via Sketch, yet its low 1.8% odds reflect market views that it falls short of the specific "Style Control On" threshold. Meta's earlier Muse Image refinements and scattered reports from other labs create uncertainty for the 50% cohort, while lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others underscore the absence of comparable verified releases or timelines in the final days of September.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$112,631Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google's recent rollout of Google Pics, an AI image generator with admin-level style references, brand consistency controls, and prompt-based stylistic preferences integrated across Workspace apps, has driven strong trader consensus around its 78.5% implied probability. This September 1 launch builds on Gemini 3.5 image capabilities for precise visual direction retention, giving the lab a clear edge in demonstrated style adherence features ahead of month-end. OpenAI's September 8 ChatGPT Images 2.5 update improved style reflection and editing via Sketch, yet its low 1.8% odds reflect market views that it falls short of the specific "Style Control On" threshold. Meta's earlier Muse Image refinements and scattered reports from other labs create uncertainty for the 50% cohort, while lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and others underscore the absence of comparable verified releases or timelines in the final days of September.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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