Meta’s strong recent performance anchors trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of September, with its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2 delivering competitive agentic coding and reasoning scores that place the lab behind only Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on composite benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants lag in overall intelligence indices, while earlier talent departures from DeepMind and slower frontier progress reinforce the gap. Meta’s open-weight distribution and infrastructure investments further support its positioning as the clear bronze medalist. With resolution imminent, the 73.9% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark presence and the absence of credible challengers closing the distance in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMeta 74.7%
Google 16%
Z.ai 2.7%
Alibaba 2.6%
$87,448 Vol.
$87,448 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Meta
75%
16%
Z.ai
3%
Alibaba
3%
Moonshot
3%
OpenAI
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 74.7%
Google 16%
Z.ai 2.7%
Alibaba 2.6%
$87,448 Vol.
$87,448 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Meta
$11,731 Vol.
75%
$38,395 Vol.
16%
Z.ai
$2,238 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$9,327 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$3,005 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$5,003 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,903 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,183 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$1,931 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s strong recent performance anchors trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of September, with its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2 delivering competitive agentic coding and reasoning scores that place the lab behind only Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on composite benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants lag in overall intelligence indices, while earlier talent departures from DeepMind and slower frontier progress reinforce the gap. Meta’s open-weight distribution and infrastructure investments further support its positioning as the clear bronze medalist. With resolution imminent, the 73.9% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark presence and the absence of credible challengers closing the distance in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$87,448Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta’s strong recent performance anchors trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of September, with its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2 delivering competitive agentic coding and reasoning scores that place the lab behind only Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on composite benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants lag in overall intelligence indices, while earlier talent departures from DeepMind and slower frontier progress reinforce the gap. Meta’s open-weight distribution and infrastructure investments further support its positioning as the clear bronze medalist. With resolution imminent, the 73.9% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark presence and the absence of credible challengers closing the distance in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$87,448Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s strong recent performance anchors trader sentiment for third-best AI lab by end of September, with its Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2 delivering competitive agentic coding and reasoning scores that place the lab behind only Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on composite benchmarks like Artificial Analysis and BenchLM. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash variants lag in overall intelligence indices, while earlier talent departures from DeepMind and slower frontier progress reinforce the gap. Meta’s open-weight distribution and infrastructure investments further support its positioning as the clear bronze medalist. With resolution imminent, the 73.9% implied probability reflects sustained benchmark presence and the absence of credible challengers closing the distance in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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