Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 because he has avoided endorsing the employee-led letter since its release, despite recent public alignment with its themes. The document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, requests U.S. support for international tools to deliberately slow frontier large language model progress amid risks from automated AI research. Musk’s September 12 reply of “Dario is right” to Amodei’s essay signaled agreement on pacing but stopped short of committing xAI or himself to the specific statement, consistent with his emphasis on competitive speed. With the deadline now less than two weeks away and no new signals of intent, sentiment remains anchored in his established pattern of selective AI safety engagement. A last-minute reversal remains possible if peer pressure or strategic optics shift, though historical precedent makes it improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
9% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
Oui
9% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 because he has avoided endorsing the employee-led letter since its release, despite recent public alignment with its themes. The document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, requests U.S. support for international tools to deliberately slow frontier large language model progress amid risks from automated AI research. Musk’s September 12 reply of “Dario is right” to Amodei’s essay signaled agreement on pacing but stopped short of committing xAI or himself to the specific statement, consistent with his emphasis on competitive speed. With the deadline now less than two weeks away and no new signals of intent, sentiment remains anchored in his established pattern of selective AI safety engagement. A last-minute reversal remains possible if peer pressure or strategic optics shift, though historical precedent makes it improbable.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$4,832Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 because he has avoided endorsing the employee-led letter since its release, despite recent public alignment with its themes. The document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, requests U.S. support for international tools to deliberately slow frontier large language model progress amid risks from automated AI research. Musk’s September 12 reply of “Dario is right” to Amodei’s essay signaled agreement on pacing but stopped short of committing xAI or himself to the specific statement, consistent with his emphasis on competitive speed. With the deadline now less than two weeks away and no new signals of intent, sentiment remains anchored in his established pattern of selective AI safety engagement. A last-minute reversal remains possible if peer pressure or strategic optics shift, though historical precedent makes it improbable.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,832Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that Elon Musk will not sign the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 because he has avoided endorsing the employee-led letter since its release, despite recent public alignment with its themes. The document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta, requests U.S. support for international tools to deliberately slow frontier large language model progress amid risks from automated AI research. Musk’s September 12 reply of “Dario is right” to Amodei’s essay signaled agreement on pacing but stopped short of committing xAI or himself to the specific statement, consistent with his emphasis on competitive speed. With the deadline now less than two weeks away and no new signals of intent, sentiment remains anchored in his established pattern of selective AI safety engagement. A last-minute reversal remains possible if peer pressure or strategic optics shift, though historical precedent makes it improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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