Google's recent focus on incremental lighter models such as Gemini 3.7 Flash (released August 13) and 3.6/3.5 Flash variants in July, rather than a new flagship Pro iteration, underpins the 54% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Persistent delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June then slipped to July amid testing and partner feedback—combined with confirmation that training has started on Gemini 4, signal that the next major Pro upgrade remains further out. Traders appear to weigh Google's pattern of staggered, non-Pro launches and lack of official September timelines or developer previews against historical release cadence, keeping specific September dates clustered below 6% each.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre 54%
23 septembre 6%
2 septembre 5%
20 septembre 5%
Le ou avant le 1er septembre
3%
2 septembre
5%
3 septembre
5%
4 septembre
5%
5 septembre
5%
6 septembre
5%
7 septembre
5%
8 septembre
4%
9 septembre
4%
10 septembre
4%
11 septembre
5%
12 septembre
5%
13 septembre
4%
14 septembre
5%
15 septembre
5%
16 septembre
4%
17 septembre
3%
18 septembre
5%
19 septembre
3%
20 septembre
5%
21 septembre
5%
22 septembre
5%
23 septembre
6%
24 septembre
5%
25 septembre
5%
26 septembre
3%
27 septembre
5%
28 septembre
5%
29 septembre
4%
30 septembre
3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre
54%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre 54%
23 septembre 6%
2 septembre 5%
20 septembre 5%
Le ou avant le 1er septembre
3%
2 septembre
5%
3 septembre
5%
4 septembre
5%
5 septembre
5%
6 septembre
5%
7 septembre
5%
8 septembre
4%
9 septembre
4%
10 septembre
4%
11 septembre
5%
12 septembre
5%
13 septembre
4%
14 septembre
5%
15 septembre
5%
16 septembre
4%
17 septembre
3%
18 septembre
5%
19 septembre
3%
20 septembre
5%
21 septembre
5%
22 septembre
5%
23 septembre
6%
24 septembre
5%
25 septembre
5%
26 septembre
3%
27 septembre
5%
28 septembre
5%
29 septembre
4%
30 septembre
3%
Aucune sortie d'ici le 30 septembre
54%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's recent focus on incremental lighter models such as Gemini 3.7 Flash (released August 13) and 3.6/3.5 Flash variants in July, rather than a new flagship Pro iteration, underpins the 54% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Persistent delays for Gemini 3.5 Pro—originally slated for June then slipped to July amid testing and partner feedback—combined with confirmation that training has started on Gemini 4, signal that the next major Pro upgrade remains further out. Traders appear to weigh Google's pattern of staggered, non-Pro launches and lack of official September timelines or developer previews against historical release cadence, keeping specific September dates clustered below 6% each.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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