Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration cadence drives the tight clustering of near-term probabilities, following the July 24 release of Opus 5 and the September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1. Traders price a strong chance of an Opus 5.1 or equivalent update within days, consistent with historical gaps of roughly six to eight weeks between flagship Opus versions and recent routing rumors suggesting imminent deployment. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google models, combined with Anthropic’s focus on cost-efficient reasoning gains and effort controls, reinforces expectations of another incremental release before month-end. At the same time, the 25% probability assigned to no launch by September 30 reflects uncertainty around exact timing, potential safety reviews, and the absence of an official announcement. Key near-term catalysts include any new model-card updates or API documentation changes.