Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2 and the September 15 launch of Gemini 3.8 Live models—topping speech-to-speech benchmarks—have reinforced trader consensus around its second-place standing behind OpenAI. Strong infrastructure momentum, including Google Cloud growth and TPU deployments, plus consistent benchmark results across coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks, have lifted implied odds to 89 percent. In contrast, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads some updated leaderboards but trails in aggregate lab positioning, while Meta, xAI, and Chinese labs remain further back on independent evaluations. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or benchmark shift could still alter the narrow gap among non-leaders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 89%
Meta 4.9%
OpenAI 2.5%
Anthropic 2.4%
$102,247 Vol.
$102,247 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
89%
Meta
5%
OpenAI
3%
Anthropic
2%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 89%
Meta 4.9%
OpenAI 2.5%
Anthropic 2.4%
$102,247 Vol.
$102,247 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
$30,253 Vol.
89%
Meta
$13,188 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$8,046 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$5,400 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$14,441 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,858 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,855 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$2,888 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$3,757 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,229 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2 and the September 15 launch of Gemini 3.8 Live models—topping speech-to-speech benchmarks—have reinforced trader consensus around its second-place standing behind OpenAI. Strong infrastructure momentum, including Google Cloud growth and TPU deployments, plus consistent benchmark results across coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks, have lifted implied odds to 89 percent. In contrast, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads some updated leaderboards but trails in aggregate lab positioning, while Meta, xAI, and Chinese labs remain further back on independent evaluations. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or benchmark shift could still alter the narrow gap among non-leaders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$102,247Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2 and the September 15 launch of Gemini 3.8 Live models—topping speech-to-speech benchmarks—have reinforced trader consensus around its second-place standing behind OpenAI. Strong infrastructure momentum, including Google Cloud growth and TPU deployments, plus consistent benchmark results across coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks, have lifted implied odds to 89 percent. In contrast, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads some updated leaderboards but trails in aggregate lab positioning, while Meta, xAI, and Chinese labs remain further back on independent evaluations. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or benchmark shift could still alter the narrow gap among non-leaders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$102,247Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google DeepMind’s recent Gemini 3.8 Flash release on September 2 and the September 15 launch of Gemini 3.8 Live models—topping speech-to-speech benchmarks—have reinforced trader consensus around its second-place standing behind OpenAI. Strong infrastructure momentum, including Google Cloud growth and TPU deployments, plus consistent benchmark results across coding, reasoning, and multimodal tasks, have lifted implied odds to 89 percent. In contrast, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 leads some updated leaderboards but trails in aggregate lab positioning, while Meta, xAI, and Chinese labs remain further back on independent evaluations. With resolution days away, any late-September model update or benchmark shift could still alter the narrow gap among non-leaders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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