Google leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for second place in Text Arena math performance by end-September because its Gemini 3.x series, particularly flash-high and Deep Think variants, consistently ranks immediately behind Anthropic’s Claude models on LMArena and related math leaderboards. Recent internal testing of Google DeepMind’s experimental “Mathematica” model—built on Gemini 3.1 Pro—has shown strong results on IMO-level problems and research-grade benchmarks such as FirstProof and IMO-ProofBench, with autonomous agents like Aletheia demonstrating iterative proof generation. These developments reinforce Google’s lab-level depth in structured mathematical reasoning without displacing Anthropic’s current top models. Other labs trail significantly in aggregate arena votes and math-specific Elo, with no major releases or benchmark shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the ordering before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 78%
Anthropic 8.6%
OpenAI 7.3%
Meta 6.0%
$59,602 Vol.
$59,602 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
78%
Anthropic
9%
OpenAI
7%
Meta
6%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 78%
Anthropic 8.6%
OpenAI 7.3%
Meta 6.0%
$59,602 Vol.
$59,602 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
$19,396 Vol.
78%
Anthropic
$7,704 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$6,968 Vol.
7%
Meta
$1,547 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$1,764 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$1,717 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$5,780 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,255 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$1,349 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,236 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,227 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,658 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$766 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,063 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,044 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$951 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,228 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$566 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$910 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for second place in Text Arena math performance by end-September because its Gemini 3.x series, particularly flash-high and Deep Think variants, consistently ranks immediately behind Anthropic’s Claude models on LMArena and related math leaderboards. Recent internal testing of Google DeepMind’s experimental “Mathematica” model—built on Gemini 3.1 Pro—has shown strong results on IMO-level problems and research-grade benchmarks such as FirstProof and IMO-ProofBench, with autonomous agents like Aletheia demonstrating iterative proof generation. These developments reinforce Google’s lab-level depth in structured mathematical reasoning without displacing Anthropic’s current top models. Other labs trail significantly in aggregate arena votes and math-specific Elo, with no major releases or benchmark shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the ordering before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$59,602Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for second place in Text Arena math performance by end-September because its Gemini 3.x series, particularly flash-high and Deep Think variants, consistently ranks immediately behind Anthropic’s Claude models on LMArena and related math leaderboards. Recent internal testing of Google DeepMind’s experimental “Mathematica” model—built on Gemini 3.1 Pro—has shown strong results on IMO-level problems and research-grade benchmarks such as FirstProof and IMO-ProofBench, with autonomous agents like Aletheia demonstrating iterative proof generation. These developments reinforce Google’s lab-level depth in structured mathematical reasoning without displacing Anthropic’s current top models. Other labs trail significantly in aggregate arena votes and math-specific Elo, with no major releases or benchmark shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the ordering before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$59,602Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability for second place in Text Arena math performance by end-September because its Gemini 3.x series, particularly flash-high and Deep Think variants, consistently ranks immediately behind Anthropic’s Claude models on LMArena and related math leaderboards. Recent internal testing of Google DeepMind’s experimental “Mathematica” model—built on Gemini 3.1 Pro—has shown strong results on IMO-level problems and research-grade benchmarks such as FirstProof and IMO-ProofBench, with autonomous agents like Aletheia demonstrating iterative proof generation. These developments reinforce Google’s lab-level depth in structured mathematical reasoning without displacing Anthropic’s current top models. Other labs trail significantly in aggregate arena votes and math-specific Elo, with no major releases or benchmark shifts reported in the past two weeks that would alter the ordering before month-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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