Apple’s official invitation to its “Surprise and Shine” event on September 9 has become the dominant factor behind the 74.5% market-implied odds that a foldable iPhone will be announced. The company explicitly linked the event to the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and its first foldable model, widely expected to be called iPhone Ultra, with a book-style design featuring roughly 5.5-inch outer and 7.8-inch inner displays. Credible supply-chain and analyst reporting, including from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, has reinforced that the device remains on track despite earlier manufacturing chatter, with features such as a titanium frame, reduced crease, and Touch ID in the power button. The event, occurring just days from now under incoming CEO John Ternus, serves as the immediate catalyst that traders are pricing in.