Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAoût 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
1.38–1.41ºC 100.0%
<1.30ºC <1%
1.30–1.33ºC <1%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$20,855 Vol.
$20,855 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
No
1.30–1.33ºC
No
1.34–1.37ºC
No
1.38–1.41ºC
Yes
1.42–1.45ºC
No
>1.45ºC
No
1.38–1.41ºC 100.0%
<1.30ºC <1%
1.30–1.33ºC <1%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$20,855 Vol.
$20,855 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
No
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
No
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
No
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,761 Vol.
Yes
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,307 Vol.
No
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,855Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,855Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis from ERA5 data confirms August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—driven by record extra-polar sea surface temperatures and strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. This aligns with the market's near-certain consensus around 1.38–1.41°C in the primary resolving dataset, reflecting consistent observational trends from multiple agencies amid ongoing greenhouse gas accumulation. Model runs and historical analogs indicate limited upside risk from further intensification, though revisions in final processed data or alternative baselines could introduce minor variance before settlement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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