SpaceX's September 2026 launch cadence centers on sustained Falcon 9 operations from Vandenberg for polar-orbit Starlink batches, supplemented by Cape Canaveral missions including Crew-13 on September 12 and the O3b mPOWER triplet targeted for mid-month. Traders price the closely matched <12, 12, and 13 outcomes around uncertainties in additional Vandenberg Starlink slots, range and weather constraints, and whether Starship Flight 14 achieves its first orbital attempt before month-end as a potential wildcard. The shift of Florida Starlink deployments to Starship, combined with typical monthly Falcon cadence of roughly eight to ten flights, keeps probabilities balanced while highlighting how minor slips or added manifests could decide the final tally.