China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for outcomes in the 4.0–5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by robust exports and front-loaded fiscal measures, despite rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analysts project full-year growth near 4.6–4.8 percent, reflecting moderation after the strong start amid persistent weak consumption, property-sector drag, and supply-chain pressures. This combination of policy anchor, resilient early performance, and identifiable headwinds explains the heavy weighting toward the current leading outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,0–5,0 % 69%
5,0–6,0 % 30.3%
3,0–4,0 % 1.4%
6,0-7,0 % <1%
$572,118 Vol.
$572,118 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
69%
5,0–6,0 %
30%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
<1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 69%
5,0–6,0 % 30.3%
3,0–4,0 % 1.4%
6,0-7,0 % <1%
$572,118 Vol.
$572,118 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
$44,526 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$43,665 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$23,945 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$46,550 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$138,757 Vol.
69%
5,0–6,0 %
$56,351 Vol.
30%
6,0-7,0 %
$51,224 Vol.
1%
7,0–8,0 %
$55,935 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$24,153 Vol.
<1%
9,0 %+
$87,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for outcomes in the 4.0–5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by robust exports and front-loaded fiscal measures, despite rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analysts project full-year growth near 4.6–4.8 percent, reflecting moderation after the strong start amid persistent weak consumption, property-sector drag, and supply-chain pressures. This combination of policy anchor, resilient early performance, and identifiable headwinds explains the heavy weighting toward the current leading outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$572,118Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for outcomes in the 4.0–5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by robust exports and front-loaded fiscal measures, despite rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analysts project full-year growth near 4.6–4.8 percent, reflecting moderation after the strong start amid persistent weak consumption, property-sector drag, and supply-chain pressures. This combination of policy anchor, resilient early performance, and identifiable headwinds explains the heavy weighting toward the current leading outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$572,118Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for outcomes in the 4.0–5.0 percent range. First-quarter data released in April showed 5.0 percent year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and driven by robust exports and front-loaded fiscal measures, despite rising energy costs linked to Middle East developments. Analysts project full-year growth near 4.6–4.8 percent, reflecting moderation after the strong start amid persistent weak consumption, property-sector drag, and supply-chain pressures. This combination of policy anchor, resilient early performance, and identifiable headwinds explains the heavy weighting toward the current leading outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes