Tesla's recent share price action around the $400–$425 range, coupled with a modest rebound following May 15 earnings and a $1,000 Model Y price increase announced this week, has anchored trader consensus at the 690 billion-plus outcome with a 46 percent implied probability. Musk’s roughly 13 percent direct stake plus restored 2018 options continue to dominate the public-market component of his fortune, while the merged SpaceX-xAI valuation remains the largest private holding. With resolution only two weeks away, markets are pricing in limited volatility through month-end absent major macroeconomic shifts or regulatory news. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds weighting near-term equity performance more heavily than longer-term growth narratives.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour690b+ 45%
680-690b 19%
670-680b 16%
<610b 8.7%
$20,973 Vol.
$20,973 Vol.
<610b
12%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
19%
690b+
45%
690b+ 45%
680-690b 19%
670-680b 16%
<610b 8.7%
$20,973 Vol.
$20,973 Vol.
<610b
12%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
8%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
19%
690b+
45%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's recent share price action around the $400–$425 range, coupled with a modest rebound following May 15 earnings and a $1,000 Model Y price increase announced this week, has anchored trader consensus at the 690 billion-plus outcome with a 46 percent implied probability. Musk’s roughly 13 percent direct stake plus restored 2018 options continue to dominate the public-market component of his fortune, while the merged SpaceX-xAI valuation remains the largest private holding. With resolution only two weeks away, markets are pricing in limited volatility through month-end absent major macroeconomic shifts or regulatory news. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds weighting near-term equity performance more heavily than longer-term growth narratives.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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