Israel's naval blockade enforcement has repeatedly prevented Gaza-bound aid vessels from approaching its territorial waters, as demonstrated by the April 30 interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla more than 500 nautical miles offshore near Crete, where over 175 activists were detained and vessels diverted. The latest group of more than 50 boats departed Marmaris, Turkey, on May 14 for what organizers describe as the final leg, yet historical precedent and ongoing military operations indicate likely boarding or redirection well before the May 31 deadline. Traders' 64% probability on "No" reflects this established pattern of preemptive action in international waters to maintain the blockade, with no verified breakthroughs in prior attempts this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa flottille de Gaza entre dans les eaux israéliennes d'ici le 31 mai ?
Oui
$150,119 Vol.
$150,119 Vol.
Oui
$150,119 Vol.
$150,119 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 20, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's naval blockade enforcement has repeatedly prevented Gaza-bound aid vessels from approaching its territorial waters, as demonstrated by the April 30 interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla more than 500 nautical miles offshore near Crete, where over 175 activists were detained and vessels diverted. The latest group of more than 50 boats departed Marmaris, Turkey, on May 14 for what organizers describe as the final leg, yet historical precedent and ongoing military operations indicate likely boarding or redirection well before the May 31 deadline. Traders' 64% probability on "No" reflects this established pattern of preemptive action in international waters to maintain the blockade, with no verified breakthroughs in prior attempts this year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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