Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned models indicate a maximum temperature of 29°C in Beijing on August 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and seasonal cooling that limits afternoon solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling. This narrow uncertainty band underpins the market-implied probability of 100% for 29°C, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time observational data and short-range guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing that boosts insolation or revisions in official measurements near resolution thresholds, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Pékin le 15 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Pékin le 15 août ?
29°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
30°C <1%
$97,363 Vol.
$97,363 Vol.
15 août 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
30°C <1%
$97,363 Vol.
$97,363 Vol.
15 août 2026
27°C or below
$19,693 Vol.
No
28°C
$18,080 Vol.
No
29°C
$17,068 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$9,603 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,720 Vol.
No
32°C
$9,730 Vol.
No
33°C
$8,791 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,451 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,600 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,329 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$298 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned models indicate a maximum temperature of 29°C in Beijing on August 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and seasonal cooling that limits afternoon solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling. This narrow uncertainty band underpins the market-implied probability of 100% for 29°C, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time observational data and short-range guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing that boosts insolation or revisions in official measurements near resolution thresholds, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$97,363Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned models indicate a maximum temperature of 29°C in Beijing on August 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and seasonal cooling that limits afternoon solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling. This narrow uncertainty band underpins the market-implied probability of 100% for 29°C, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time observational data and short-range guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing that boosts insolation or revisions in official measurements near resolution thresholds, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$97,363Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned models indicate a maximum temperature of 29°C in Beijing on August 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, expected thundershowers, and seasonal cooling that limits afternoon solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling. This narrow uncertainty band underpins the market-implied probability of 100% for 29°C, reflecting trader consensus grounded in real-time observational data and short-range guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing that boosts insolation or revisions in official measurements near resolution thresholds, though current atmospheric conditions make such shifts unlikely before the daily high is recorded.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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