A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 3?
27°C 98.4%
28°C 1.3%
26°C <1%
29°C or higher <1%
$55,330 Vol.
$55,330 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
98%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 98.4%
28°C 1.3%
26°C <1%
29°C or higher <1%
$55,330 Vol.
$55,330 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
19°C or below
$1,930 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,388 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$6,001 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5,250 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,345 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$4,070 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$9,767 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10,636 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,855 Vol.
98%
28°C
$3,907 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$2,269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Volume
$55,330Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55,330Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 10:01 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver behind current trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 3 maximum temperature, with recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources indicating suppressed daytime warming. Cooler maritime air, increased cloud cover, and light-to-moderate southerly winds are expected to limit insolation and keep highs near or below seasonal normals of 21–23 °C, shifting implied probabilities toward the 24–25 °C outcomes that still dominate the market. Ensemble spread remains notable because timing of frontal passage and residual moisture affect how much radiational cooling versus daytime mixing occurs; clearer breaks could briefly allow readings near 26 °C while heavier stratiform rain would cap them closer to 22–23 °C. Traders are therefore weighing the latest high-resolution model updates against climatological July averages and historical cold-surge analogs to refine positions ahead of tomorrow’s official maximum reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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