Current MetService forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 16°C on May 22 under fine but initially cloudy conditions with developing northerlies, aligning with the market's leading 43.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble models show limited upward potential to 17°C, reflected in the 30% share for that bin, while cooler scenarios near the seasonal May average of 14–15°C capture the remaining trader consensus. NIWA's broader seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region through July, consistent with the subdued probabilities below 15°C. As resolution nears within 24 hours, any final model adjustments to wind patterns or cloud cover could still shift the peak reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on May 22?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 22?
16°C 46%
17°C 27%
15°C 16%
14°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
22 mai 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
7%
15°C
16%
16°C
46%
17°C
27%
18°C
5%
19°C or higher
1%
16°C 46%
17°C 27%
15°C 16%
14°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
22 mai 2026
9°C or below
$227 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,195 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$344 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$260 Vol.
1%
13°C
$168 Vol.
1%
14°C
$389 Vol.
7%
15°C
$542 Vol.
16%
16°C
$471 Vol.
46%
17°C
$498 Vol.
27%
18°C
$205 Vol.
5%
19°C or higher
$212 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current MetService forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 16°C on May 22 under fine but initially cloudy conditions with developing northerlies, aligning with the market's leading 43.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble models show limited upward potential to 17°C, reflected in the 30% share for that bin, while cooler scenarios near the seasonal May average of 14–15°C capture the remaining trader consensus. NIWA's broader seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region through July, consistent with the subdued probabilities below 15°C. As resolution nears within 24 hours, any final model adjustments to wind patterns or cloud cover could still shift the peak reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$5,483Date de fin
22 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current MetService forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 16°C on May 22 under fine but initially cloudy conditions with developing northerlies, aligning with the market's leading 43.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble models show limited upward potential to 17°C, reflected in the 30% share for that bin, while cooler scenarios near the seasonal May average of 14–15°C capture the remaining trader consensus. NIWA's broader seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region through July, consistent with the subdued probabilities below 15°C. As resolution nears within 24 hours, any final model adjustments to wind patterns or cloud cover could still shift the peak reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,483Date de fin
22 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current MetService forecasts for Wellington indicate a maximum of 16°C on May 22 under fine but initially cloudy conditions with developing northerlies, aligning with the market's leading 43.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Ensemble models show limited upward potential to 17°C, reflected in the 30% share for that bin, while cooler scenarios near the seasonal May average of 14–15°C capture the remaining trader consensus. NIWA's broader seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region through July, consistent with the subdued probabilities below 15°C. As resolution nears within 24 hours, any final model adjustments to wind patterns or cloud cover could still shift the peak reading.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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