**Forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s overnight minimum on August 25 centers on competing influences from clear-sky radiative cooling versus moderating southeasterly winds and possible marine-layer effects.** Multiple models project overnight lows near 12–13 °C under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions, consistent with typical mid-August climatology of roughly 10–11 °C. However, slight variations in wind speed (8–16 mph SSE) and any late-arriving cloud cover could either allow stronger surface cooling toward single digits or prevent temperatures from dropping below the mid-teens. This balance produces nearly equal market-implied odds for extremes (≤7 °C or ≥17 °C), reflecting genuine model spread in nocturnal boundary-layer processes rather than a consensus shift. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and regional ensembles will clarify whether radiative losses or advective mixing dominate the final minimum.