Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather outlooks place Miami’s overnight low for August 24 near 78–81 °F, consistent with the market’s two leading bins (80–81 °F at 38.5 %, 78–79 °F at 30 %). Persistent subtropical moisture, light southeasterly flow, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures close to the long-term August average of 78–80 °F. Model consensus shows modest spread driven by timing of any evening convection and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or stronger winds could shave a degree or two, while increased cloud cover or calm conditions would support readings near 81 °F. With resolution occurring within 24 hours, the tight clustering of implied probabilities reflects traders’ assessment of these short-term variables rather than any larger-scale pattern shift.