Forecast uncertainty between the closely matched 58-59°F and 60-61°F bins stems from variability in National Weather Service model guidance for New York City’s overnight low on September 15. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any weak frontal passage, cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling, surface wind speeds that mix warmer air downward, and dew point trends tied to regional humidity. With probabilities split near 45% and 40%, traders are pricing in the typical spread among short-range ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and European models, where small shifts in these variables can alter the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical September climatology for the area shows average lows near 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering around current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à New York le 15 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à New York le 15 septembre ?
58-59°F 45%
60-61°F 40%
56-57°F 13%
62-63°F 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
51°F ou moins
5%
52-53 °F
2%
54-55°F
4%
56-57°F
13%
58-59°F
45%
60-61°F
40%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
1%
70°F ou plus
<1%
58-59°F 45%
60-61°F 40%
56-57°F 13%
62-63°F 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 sept. 2026
51°F ou moins
$40 Vol.
5%
52-53 °F
$0 Vol.
2%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
4%
56-57°F
$190 Vol.
13%
58-59°F
$255 Vol.
45%
60-61°F
$94 Vol.
40%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
11%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$5 Vol.
1%
70°F ou plus
$300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty between the closely matched 58-59°F and 60-61°F bins stems from variability in National Weather Service model guidance for New York City’s overnight low on September 15. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any weak frontal passage, cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling, surface wind speeds that mix warmer air downward, and dew point trends tied to regional humidity. With probabilities split near 45% and 40%, traders are pricing in the typical spread among short-range ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and European models, where small shifts in these variables can alter the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical September climatology for the area shows average lows near 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering around current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$884Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty between the closely matched 58-59°F and 60-61°F bins stems from variability in National Weather Service model guidance for New York City’s overnight low on September 15. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any weak frontal passage, cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling, surface wind speeds that mix warmer air downward, and dew point trends tied to regional humidity. With probabilities split near 45% and 40%, traders are pricing in the typical spread among short-range ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and European models, where small shifts in these variables can alter the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical September climatology for the area shows average lows near 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering around current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$884Date de fin
15 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty between the closely matched 58-59°F and 60-61°F bins stems from variability in National Weather Service model guidance for New York City’s overnight low on September 15. Key differentiating factors include the timing and strength of any weak frontal passage, cloud cover that modulates radiational cooling, surface wind speeds that mix warmer air downward, and dew point trends tied to regional humidity. With probabilities split near 45% and 40%, traders are pricing in the typical spread among short-range ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and European models, where small shifts in these variables can alter the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical September climatology for the area shows average lows near 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering around current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La température la plus élevée à New York sera-t-elle comprise entre 72 et 73°F le 15 septembre ?
66%
Oui
La température la plus basse à New York sera-t-elle comprise entre 62 et 63°F le 16 septembre ?
28%
Oui
La température la plus basse à New York sera-t-elle comprise entre 66 et 67°F le 14 septembre ?
41%
Oui
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