**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature in Shanghai on September 1, 2026, most likely in the 25–26°C range.** Persistent warm, humid air masses combined with expected cloud cover and scattered rain or thunderstorms are limiting overnight radiative cooling. High dew points (typically 24–26°C) and southeasterly flow maintain elevated nighttime temperatures, consistent with late-August observed lows of 26–28°C under similar conditions. Model consensus points to a low near 25–26°C, with 26°C emerging as the central tendency across sources. This positions the market-implied probabilities—51% for 26°C, 25.5% for 27°C, and 22% for 25°C—as reflecting aggregated trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, particularly around exact rainfall timing and intensity that could nudge the minimum by 1°C. No strong cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling event is anticipated in the immediate 48-hour window, keeping outcomes below 24°C or above 27°C at much lower implied probabilities. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine these thresholds.