Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Varsovie le 25 août ?
La température la plus basse à Varsovie le 25 août ?
16°C or higher 93%
6°C or below 92%
7°C 34%
10°C 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
25 août 2026
6°C or below
92%
7°C
34%
8°C
20%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
93%
16°C or higher 93%
6°C or below 92%
7°C 34%
10°C 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
25 août 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
92%
7°C
$5 Vol.
34%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$5 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20Date de fin
25 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20Date de fin
25 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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