**Recent constituency polls for the June 18 Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, the new party led by Rupert Lowe with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, placing third behind Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK.** Survation’s late-May/early-June survey put the party on 7%, while later polling has ranged up to 13%, reflecting a split in the right-wing vote that could benefit Burnham. As a first-time parliamentary contender with limited name recognition outside online circles, Restore Britain’s support remains modest despite active local canvassing and attention to issues such as anti-social behaviour and town-centre revival. Traders appear to view the lower poll readings and the structural challenge of breaking into double digits in a competitive three-way contest as the more probable outcome, producing the current 65% implied probability on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection partielle de Makerfield : Restore Britain reçoit plus de 10 % ?
Élection partielle de Makerfield : Restore Britain reçoit plus de 10 % ?
Oui
$17,460 Vol.
$17,460 Vol.
18 juin 2026
Oui
$17,460 Vol.
$17,460 Vol.
18 juin 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Recent constituency polls for the June 18 Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, the new party led by Rupert Lowe with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, placing third behind Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK.**
Survation’s late-May/early-June survey put the party on 7%, while later polling has ranged up to 13%, reflecting a split in the right-wing vote that could benefit Burnham. As a first-time parliamentary contender with limited name recognition outside online circles, Restore Britain’s support remains modest despite active local canvassing and attention to issues such as anti-social behaviour and town-centre revival. Traders appear to view the lower poll readings and the structural challenge of breaking into double digits in a competitive three-way contest as the more probable outcome, producing the current 65% implied probability on “No.”
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Marché ouvert : Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$17,460Date de fin
18 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).**Recent constituency polls for the June 18 Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, the new party led by Rupert Lowe with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, placing third behind Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK.**
Survation’s late-May/early-June survey put the party on 7%, while later polling has ranged up to 13%, reflecting a split in the right-wing vote that could benefit Burnham. As a first-time parliamentary contender with limited name recognition outside online circles, Restore Britain’s support remains modest despite active local canvassing and attention to issues such as anti-social behaviour and town-centre revival. Traders appear to view the lower poll readings and the structural challenge of breaking into double digits in a competitive three-way contest as the more probable outcome, producing the current 65% implied probability on “No.”
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$17,460Date de fin
18 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent constituency polls for the June 18 Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, the new party led by Rupert Lowe with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, placing third behind Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK.** Survation’s late-May/early-June survey put the party on 7%, while later polling has ranged up to 13%, reflecting a split in the right-wing vote that could benefit Burnham. As a first-time parliamentary contender with limited name recognition outside online circles, Restore Britain’s support remains modest despite active local canvassing and attention to issues such as anti-social behaviour and town-centre revival. Traders appear to view the lower poll readings and the structural challenge of breaking into double digits in a competitive three-way contest as the more probable outcome, producing the current 65% implied probability on “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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