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Monde·Australie

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka
Monde·Australie

Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Yiwarr McGrath

Yiwarr McGrath

$1,202 Vol.

96%

icon for Andrew Blamey

Andrew Blamey

$678 Vol.

3%

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding position in the Mulka by-election market due to his preselection as Territory Labor's candidate in the remote East Arnhem Land seat, where more than 60 percent of voters are Indigenous. McGrath, a Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year from Galiwin'ku, has emphasized healthcare access, Yolŋu-led decision-making, and continuity with the legacy of resigned independent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, whose August 2026 departure protested CLP government policies. The electorate's recent results show overwhelming rejection of CLP candidates, and Labor's structured campaign in a short timeline strengthens trader expectations of a win. Andrew Blamey, the main independent, trails significantly. A late surge by another local independent or unusually high CLP turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts before the September 12 poll.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,880
Date de fin
12 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).Yiwarr McGrath holds a commanding position in the Mulka by-election market due to his preselection as Territory Labor's candidate in the remote East Arnhem Land seat, where more than 60 percent of voters are Indigenous. McGrath, a Yolŋu registered nurse and former NT Young Australian of the Year from Galiwin'ku, has emphasized healthcare access, Yolŋu-led decision-making, and continuity with the legacy of resigned independent Yiŋiya Mark Guyula, whose August 2026 departure protested CLP government policies. The electorate's recent results show overwhelming rejection of CLP candidates, and Labor's structured campaign in a short timeline strengthens trader expectations of a win. Andrew Blamey, the main independent, trails significantly. A late surge by another local independent or unusually high CLP turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate limited scope for such shifts before the September 12 poll.

A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,880
Date de fin
12 sept. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://ntec.nt.gov.au/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly division of Mulka is scheduled to take place on September 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Mulka by-election to the Legislative Assembly of the Northern Territory. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/).

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Yiwarr McGrath » à 96%, suivi de « Andrew Blamey » à 3%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 96¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 31, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka » est « Yiwarr McGrath » à 96%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Andrew Blamey » à 3%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection partielle de Mulka » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.