OpenAI’s September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra, its most capable model to date, has driven the 82.5% market-implied odds against a formal AGI announcement before 2027. President Greg Brockman described the launch as potentially marking the start of the AGI era and noted Astra’s strong results on benchmarks such as ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath, yet he and CEO Sam Altman stopped short of declaring achievement of the company’s own definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Altman has instead labeled AGI a poorly defined marketing term, highlighted ongoing alignment and monitorability gaps, and ruled out a 2026 IPO over safety priorities. These measured statements, combined with cross-lab safety coordination efforts and the absence of an official declaration, sustain trader consensus that a clear public announcement remains unlikely by year-end 2026.